The environmental effects of global changes on northeast central Europe in the case of non-modified agricultural management

Hubert Wiggering; Frank Eulenstein; Wilfried Mirschel; Matthias Willms; Claus Dalchow; Jürgen Augustin

doi:10.3097/LO.200804

Authors

Hubert Wiggering Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Eberswalder Straße 84, D-15374 Müncheberg, Germany; University of Potsdam, Institute of Geoecology, P.O. Box 601553, D-14415 Potsdam, German
Frank Eulenstein Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Eberswalder Straße 84, D-15374 Müncheberg, Germany
Wilfried Mirschel Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Eberswalder Straße 84, D-15374 Müncheberg, Germany https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3620-3171
Matthias Willms Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Eberswalder Straße 84, D-15374 Müncheberg, Germany
Claus Dalchow Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Eberswalder Straße 84, D-15374 Müncheberg, Germany https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6797-303X
Jürgen Augustin Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Eberswalder Straße 84, D-15374 Müncheberg, Germany; Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Institute for Agricultural and Nutritional Science, Adam-Kuckhoff-Strasse 17b, D-06108 Halle (Saale), Germany

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3097/LO.200804

Keywords:

Climate scenario, Crop production, Land use, Water balance

Abstract

Climate impact scenarios for agriculture usually consider yield development, landscape water balance, nutrient dynamics or the endangerment of habitats separately. Scenario results are further limited by roughly discriminated land use types at low spatial resolution or they are restricted to single sites and isolated crops. Here, we exemplify a well data based comprehensive sensitivity analysis of a drought endangered agrarian region in Northeast Germany using a 2050 climate scenario. Coherently modelled results on water balance and yields indicate that agricultural production may persist, whereas wetlands and groundwater production will be negatively affected. The average percolation rate decreases from 143 mm a^-1 to 12 mm a-¹, and the average yield decline broken down by crops ranges from 4% for summer wheat to 14% for potatoes (main cereals: 5%).

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