Assessing Rice Production Sustainability under Future Landuse and Population in Deli Serdang Regency, Indonesia

Deddy Romulo Siagian; Rajendra P Shrestha; Imelda Marpaung; Delima Napitupulu; Lermansius Haloho; Sortha Simatupang; Khadijah EL Ramija; Setia Sari Girsang

doi:10.3097/LO.2022.1103

Authors

Deddy Romulo Siagian Research Center for Geospatial, Research Organization for Earth Sciences and Maritime, the National Research and Innovation Agency of the Republic of Indonesia, West Java, Indonesia https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7721-5032
Rajendra P Shrestha School of Environment, Resources and Development, Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), Bangkok, Thailand
Imelda Marpaung Research Center for Horticulture and Estate Crops, Research Organization for Agriculture and Food, the National Research and Innovation Agency of the Republic of Indonesia, West Java, Indonesia
Delima Napitupulu Research Center for Horticulture and Estate Crops, Research Organization for Agriculture and Food, the National Research and Innovation Agency of the Republic of Indonesia, West Java, Indonesia
Lermansius Haloho Research Center for Cooperative, Corporation, and People’s Economy, Research Organization for Governance, Economy and Community Welfare, the National Research and Innovation Agency of the Republic of Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia
Sortha Simatupang Research Center for Horticulture and Estate Crops, Research Organization for Agriculture and Food, the National Research and Innovation Agency of the Republic of Indonesia, West Java, Indonesia
Khadijah EL Ramija North Sumatera Assessment Institute for Agricultural Technology, Agricultural Ministry of Indonesia, Medan, Indonesia
Setia Sari Girsang Agricultural Ministry of Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3097/LO.2022.1103

Keywords:

landuse change, population projection, rice production sustainability, scenario-based simulation

Abstract

Rice is the staple food and its cultivation requires a specific land condition. The population growth, urbanization, and plantation expansion together with socio-economic development are the driving factors of the riceland decline in Deli Serdang Regency of North Sumatera, Indonesia. As a consequence, likely availability and sustainability of rice production are threatened. Hence, it is important to understand how the future landuse and population change will affect the riceland area and production. In the lack of spatially simulated information for the future which could be useful in planning the riceland areas, the study objectives were to project the landuse change by 2040 under three scenarios, Business as Usual (BAU), Potential Riceland Protection (PRP) and Conservation Oriented (CO), and to investigate the impact of consumption demand on the sustainability of rice production. Landsat satellite data of 2009 and 2018, several spatial GIS data, and survey data were analyzed in ArcGIS, Dyna-CLUE, and SPSS software to generate the landuse classification and to simulate the future landuses; while the population projection by 2040 was derived from a Geometric Model. The results showed that forest and riceland areas will decrease with the continuous increase of plantation and urban areas under BAU scenario, but could be protected and increased under PRP scenario. The sustainability of rice production depends not only on the total riceland area, but also the productivity, the population growth, the consumption rate, and the policy. The simulated results of three scenarios serve as an important input to planning for protecting the riceland areas and thus sustained rice production in Deli Serdang Regency.

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